UFC Flyweight Title Fight: Demetrious Johnson vs. Ali Bagautinov
Odds: (-650 Johnson / +425 Bagautinov)
Betting Pick: Johnson
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In the main event of UFC 174, UFC Flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson will look to defend his title against Ali “Puncher” Bagautinov. Johnson has firmly cemented himself as the best fighter in the world at 125 pounds, but Bagautinov is riding an eleven-fight win streak and has the kind of versatile skill set that can give anyone problems. Will Johnson continue to thrive at his natural weight and build a pound-for-pound case for himself, or will Bagautinov prove that he is the future of the UFC Flyweight division?
Ali “Puncher” Bagautinov has put together an impressive eleven-fight win streak with a mix of effective grappling, good submissions, and solid striking. In terms of talent and technique, there is no question that he is a formidable opponent for anyone. The question is how well he will handle such a huge step up in competition. Despite his long win streak, this is only his fourth UFC fight and Johnson is the toughest fighter he has faced by a very wide margin. If he keeps his head and performs up to his abilities, he can make this a really good fight, but the pressure has proven too much for other contenders before.
Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is a long-time veteran who has really found a natural home at 125 pounds. He has beaten every other top Flyweight UFC has to offer, and none of the fights were all that close either. Johnson began his career fighting bigger, stronger opponents and still putting together a nice record for himself. Now that he is fighting guys his same size, he’s not only the faster and more technical fighter in the Octagon, he’s also frequently the strongest. The big obstacle for Johnson is going to be complacency. When you’ve already handled most of the world’s best Flyweights, it’s easy to look past your opponents or not always train as hard, and Bagautinov has got more than enough skills to capitalize on that mistake.
Ultimately, Bagautinov is not ready for this fight. He should be tempering himself against some of UFC’s other top Flyweights, but Johnson’s domination of the division has left open a spot for a title challenger and so Bagautinov is being thrust into the spotlight. He’s too talented and too athletic to get steamrolled, but I don’t think there’s anywhere he is really going to be able to put Johnson in trouble. Expect Johnson to control the action in a fast-paced bout, retaining his title by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Demetrious Johnson by Unanimous Decision.
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