UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Lyoto Machida vs. Phil Davis
Odds: ( -375 Machida / +285 Davis )
Betting Pick: Davis
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In the semi-main event of UFC 163, former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida will look to put himself in position for another shot at the 205 pound title against dangerous wrestler “Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis. This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, pitting Machida’s accurate, technical boxing against Davis’ dominant wrestling and top control. There is no question that Machida is the vastly superior striker and that Davis is the vastly superior wrestler, so this one is going to come down to which guy can force his own game plan on his opponent.
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida fought his way to the top of the Light Heavyweight division with amazing footwork, technical boxing, accurate punching, great handspeed, and nearly impenetrable striking defense. From a pure technique standpoint, Machida is one of the best strikers in UFC history. The only knock against the former champion is that he prefers to backpedal and counterpunch instead of fighting aggressively. Still, there is no question that Machida is one of the hardest fighters in the sport to get a hold of. He frustrates opponents by continually slipping out of range and then makes them pay with crisp counterpunching when they push forward. Machida actually has a quite underrated ground game as well, but against Davis it’s imperative that he not fight off his back for any extended period. Machida’s road to victory is through forcing a boxing match, and if he can stay upright this is his fight to win.
“Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis has cemented himself as a dangerous player at the top of the Light Heavyweight division with his speed, physicality, effective wrestling, and dominant top control. Davis is a decent boxer, but nowhere near the same level as Machida. If Davis wants to come out of this fight win a win and potentially position himself for a title shot in the future, he is going to have to find a way to put Machida on his back early in this fight and keep him there. Machida’s ground game is good, but can’t keep him in this fight if he has to spend significant amounts of time underneath Davis. Davis has solid submissions, punishing ground and pound, and excellent positional control which should allow him to dictate this fight if he can get Machida down.
Basically, who wins this fight depends on where the fight plays out. If Machida can spend most of the fight on his feet, he will wear Davis out with superior footwork and punish him with his trademark counterpunching. If Davis can secure takedowns, he should be able to keep Machida from getting his offense going and do enough to earn the decision. Ultimately, I think Davis is a great underdog pick here. Machida has great punching power, but Davis is very durable and athletic, and should be able to absorb a bit of punishment in order to close the distance. I think Davis will find a way to put Machida on the mat, and should be able to control position and do enough damage to earn a narrow decision win.
Prediction: Phil Davis by Decision.
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