UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout: Jon Jone svs. Chael Sonnen
Odds: ( -800 Jones / +500 Sonnen )
Betting Pick: Jones
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In the main event of UFC 159, Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will defend his crown against Chael Sonnen, the one-man hype machine and former Middleweight title challenger. Sonnen talked his way into this fight with a series of verbal barbs directed at Jones, but he is moving back up in weight to 205 to fight the largest man in the history of the Light Heavyweight division. Sonnen has proven beyond a doubt that he isn’t all talk, but this is a pretty huge step up for him in terms of sheer physical size. Jones isn’t just huge, he’s sublimely talented, so Sonnen is going to have his hands full if he wants to cash the check his mouth wrote.
Chael Sonnen is known for his over-the-top persona and his dominant wrestling and top game. Sonnen has some of the most effective takedowns in the sport and is extremely effective at controlling position and dealing damage from top position. Over the last few years, he’s added some solid boxing to his repertoire as well. Sonnen’s Achilles heel has always been his submission defense. Over and over, Sonnen has controlled fights with dominant wrestling only to succumb to an armbar or a triangle choke. I don’t foresee Jones submitting Sonnen off his back, but if Sonnen gives up too much position trying to force the larger man to the mat, he could be vulnerable to Jones’ grappling.
Jon “Bones” Jones, the Light Heavyweight champion, possesses a disturbing mixture of physical gifts and technical prowess. Jones’ reach is the stuff of legend, and he is an absurdly large, strong, and fast fighter for 205 pounds. Not only that, he is a dominant wrestler and an effective striker who is constantly improving both standing and on the ground. Against Sonnen, I think he just needs to fight smart. He is an accomplished wrestler who will enjoy a massive size and strength advantage, so it’s unlikely that he will allow Sonnen to impose his will on him. In a standup fight, Jones has far more tools and far more power to make Sonnen pay for his inability to secure takedowns.
Chael Sonnen is a world-class fighter, but this is a ridiculous mismatch. Sonnen is coming off a decisive loss to Middleweight champion Anderson Silva, and now he is facing a much larger opponent who is not only just as dominant as Silva, but one who is much more capable of neutralizing Sonnen’s strengths. Sonnen was outgunned against Silva, but at least he could depend on being the better wrestler. Against Jones, who is a far better wrestler than Silva and much larger than Sonnen, he won’t enjoy that luxury. I think Sonnen will realize very early that Jones isn’t going to be worn down and that he is stuck in a standup fight. Eventually, the reach and striking disadvantage will be more than he can overcome. Jones by T/KO.
Prediction: Jon Jones by second round T/KO.
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