UFC Bantamweight bout: Brad Pickett vs. Renan Barao
Odds: (+110 Pickett /-140 Barao )
Betting Pick: Barao
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In the semi-main event, well-rounded veteran Brad “One Punch” Pickett will face a stiff challenge in the form of submission phenom Renan “Barao” Nascimento Mota Pegado. Both of these guys have years of experience and well-rounded games, but Pickett is the more versatile of the two while Barao’s ground game is better than any part of Pickett’s repertoire. If Pickett can mix it up well and try to keep this fight standing as much as possible, he will be putting himself in a good position to win, but if this fight goes to the ground it is going to be hard for him to over Barao’s ridiculous jiu-jitsu and positional control.
Brad “One Punch” Pickett is a very skilled and well-rounded veteran who has won 10 of his last 11 bouts. Pickett has solid striking with good power, decent wrestling, and good submissions. There are no huge holes in his game, but he isn’t world-class at any one thing either. What makes Pickett so dangerous is his ability to be competitive with anyone no matter where a fight plays out. Against Barao he will be the more effective striker, but he will be in trouble if and when this fight hits the ground, so he is going to have to defend the clinch and Barao’s takedowns if he wants to make it out of this one.
Renan “Barao” is an extremely accomplished submission grappler who hasn’t lost a fight since his first bout as a professional all the way back in 2005. Since then he has put together 26 wins in a row, nearly half of those coming by submission and another 25% by T/KO. Barao is a master at securing takedowns, holding his opponents down, and working for submissions. He isn’t a world class wrestler, but once fights hit the ground Barao is almost guaranteed to be in control. He has submissions from every position and his ability to sweep and escape can hardly be overstated.
Against Pickett he will enjoy a huge technique advantage in the grappling department, so he will want to try to take Pickett down as early and often as possible.
This is going to be a tough fight for Pickett. He is probably the better striker, but Barao has decent striking too and there is going to be a huge skill gap on the ground that Pickett will have a hard time overcoming. Pickett has been submitted before, and by grapplers nowhere near Barao’s level. I think this one might be back and forth early, but eventually Barao will find a way to get this fight to the ground, where he will take control and eventually submit Pickett.
Prediction: Renan Barao via third round rear naked choke.
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