Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader Prediction

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader

Odds:  (+400 Ortiz /-600 Bader )

Betting Pick:  Bader

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In the third bout of the evening, future Hall of Famer “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz will square off against heavy-handed wrestler Ryan “Darth” Bader. Tito helped lay the groundwork for dominant wrestlers in the UFC with his ground and pound style and effective grappling, but injuries have hampered him greatly over the last five or six years. Bader, for his part, is in full health and right in the middle of his athletic prime, not to mention that he has the kind of wrestling that is going to make it very difficult for Tito to impose his game plan. This is going to be a stern test for Ortiz in every way.

Ryan “Darth” Bader is an extremely tough and heavy-handed wrestler who is coming off the first loss of his professional career, a drubbing at the hands of Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones. Despite his inability to deal with Jones, Bader’s mixture of powerful clinch work, dynamic takedowns, ground and pound, and powerful boxing make him an extremely formidable opponent for anyone in the division. Bader is far more effective in the striking than most guys with wrestling of his caliber, and he has both great punching power and very solid boxing technique. His submission game isn’t as good as the rest of his offense, but he is hardly lost on the ground, and he is very effective at maintaining top position and dealing damage with strikes from on top of his opponents.

“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz is a true UFC legend. For years, his unique blend of wrestling, ground and pound, and submission prowess ruled the Light Heavyweight division. In recent years, though, a combination of the sport evolving and career-hampering injuries have made Tito’s greatness something of an afterthought. Despite repeated claims that his back is 100% again, his spinal injuries have severely limited his ability to change levels for takedowns, which takes away a huge part of his game. His striking has never really moved past the rudimentary phase, and despite his submission prowess he is not very effective off his back, so his trouble securing takedowns has almost made him a non-factor at this point.

Tito is done, and has been for years, although he seems to be the last person to realize it. Bader is, at this point, a substantially better wrestler and vastly more effective on the feet. Tito will have to telegraph takedown attempts, which Bader will stuff with ease. On the feet Ortiz is going to get boxed around badly, and I doubt he will be able to stand up with Bader for three full rounds. Bader by T/KO.

Prediction:  Ryan “Darth” Bader via third round T/KO.

  • Take Bader in your parlay Bet.
  • But a small bet on Ortiz @+400 looks attractive as he is in a must win situation or he will lose his job.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…