UFC Welterweight bout: Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha
Odds: (-300 Ellenberger /+240 Rocha )
Betting Pick: Ellenberger
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In the second bout of the card, dominant wrestler Jake Ellenberger will look to make it three in a row against undefeated submission phenom Carlos Eduardo Rocha. Rocha has looked like a monster so far in his young career, but his level of opposition has been terrible and Ellenberger is a gigantic step up for him, so this one should be interesting.
Rocha, an undefeated prospect, is clearly a dangerous ground fighter. He has finished every fight he has had, 8 of 9 by submission and 8 of 9 in the first round. It is important to remember, though, that he did this against largely unknown opposition, and that he has never fought anyone near Ellenberger’s level before. Still, it is clear that on the ground he has serious submission skills.
Ellenberger is a very well-rounded veteran who has looked impressive in all of his UFC appearances so far, even his loss to Carlos Condit. A dominant wrestler with both shoot takedowns and from the clinch, Ellenberger also has very effective boxing with heavy hands and great ground and pound. One of the most interesting thing about Ellenberger’s style is how aggressively he fights. Unlike many wrestlers who are content to grind out a decision from top position, Ellenberger comes to do damage and finish fights, both standing and on the ground.
I think this is Ellenberger’s fight to win. Rocha is just not ready for someone as well-rounded as Ellenberger at this stage of his career. More importantly, Rocha is going to need this fight to play out on the ground in order to have a shot at winning, and I don’t think he has what it takes to get Ellenberger down. If this fight goes to the ground at all, it will be with Ellenberger bombing away from top position. Either way I think Ellenberger will finish this one with strikes, wherever it plays out. Ellenberger by T/KO.
Prediction: Jake Ellenberger via third round T/KO.
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