UFC 109: Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller Prediction

185 lbs:  Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

The second bout of the evening has all the makings of a ground war, as two of the Middleweight division’s most prolific submission artists will meet in Dan Miller and Demian Maia.  Both men are coming off losses and both men have world-class ground games, so this should be a competitive grappling clinic.

Dan Miller is one of the best up and coming Middleweights in the world, and most of his success has come as a result of his excellent jiu-jitsu.  In his last fight, he was smothered by dominant wrestler Chael Sonnen, but he is always a threat to finish on the ground and also has solid wrestling and striking that seem to improve every time he fights.

If there is anyone in the 185 pound division that can test Miller’s ground game, it is undoubtedly Demian Maia.  A former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, Maia did not miss a beat translating his deadly submission game to Mixed Martial Arts.  In his last fight, against top contender Nate Marquardt, Maia learned that he had a long way to go to become a complete fighter, as he was knocked out in about 20 seconds in highlight reel fashion.  It’s pretty clear that Maia is a one-dimensional threat, but that one dimension is so spectacular that he can still be successful at the top level.

Miller is just outmatched in this fight.  His best work comes on the ground, but he is grossly outclassed in the grappling game by Maia and he lacks the explosive standup that allowed Marquardt to finish Maia.  This will probably look a lot like a jiu-jitsu match, and unfortunately for Miller there is no way he beats Maia in a jiu-jitsu match.  Maia by submission.

Fight Prediction: Demian Maia via third round submission.

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