UFC 106: Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett Prediction

170 lbs: Dustin Hazelett vs. Karo Parisyan

Odds: (-115 Hazelett / -115 Parisyan)

In the opening bout of the evening, two accomplished welterweights will meet in Dustin “McLovin” Hazelett and Karo “The Heat” Parisyan.  This is an interesting matchup for a number of reasons.  For one, both men are very accomplished grapplers with good submission games.  For another, this is Parisyan’s first fight after serving a nine month suspension after testing positive for three different banned painkillers after his win over Dong Hyung Kim, which was also overturned, so Karo has a lot to prove in order to regain the number one contender status he once held.

Dustin Hazelett, owner of perhaps the worst nickname in combat sports history, is nonetheless a very dangerous fighter.  Fighting out of Team Jorge Gurgel, Hazelett does not share his coach’s tendency to forego the ground game.  Instead, Hazelett patiently works his game, getting opponents down and, as often as not, making them tap out.  His standup leaves a lot to be desired, but his ground game is effective enough that he can usually impose his will, not to mention that Parisyan is not exactly Mohammed Ali himself.  The keys to a Hazelett win are his ability to stop takedowns and his ability to secure takedowns of his own.

Of course, avoiding Karo Parisyan’s takedowns is a notoriously difficult proposition.  The man who innovated the use of judo inside the Octagon gives opponents looks that they are just not used to, which makes his takedown game even more devastating.  Karo is not generally known as a finisher, but you can bet that every time he fights, his opponent will go for a ride at least once.  One of Parisyan’s best attributes is his aggression.  He may not be able to put opponents out with his standup, but he always comes forward, throws a lot of punches, goes for big throws, and keeps pressure on his opponents.

Stylistically, I think this matchup favors Parisyan.  Both are very accomplished on the mat, and neither man has real knockout power in his hands, so the likelihood of this fight being finished is relatively low.  That said, the most important thing in this fight is going to be who wins the standup exchanges and who can secure the dominant position on the ground.  I give Karo the edge in both categories.  He should be able to score points on the feet by staying busy and coming forward, while Hazelett is going to have to play a defensive game to try and avoid the clinch.  Karo’s busier standup and inevitable takedowns should be enough to earn him the unanimous nod.

Fight Prediction: The Heat Parisyan via unanimous decision.