TUF 9 Finale: Gleison Tibau vs. Melvin Guillard Prediction

Melvin Guillard vs. Gleison Tibau

In a Lightweight matchup between two of the division’ largest and most impressive physical specimens, Ultimate Fighter alumnus Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard will do battle with skilled Brazilian jiu jitsu practicioner Gleison Tibau. Both men are currently sitting in the middle of a huge heap of contenders at 155 pounds, and a win here is crucial if either fighter wants to distance himself from the pack.

Melvin Guillard reminds me a lot of a smaller Kevin Randleman, and not just because both are black guys with peroxide dye jobs. Both are physically impressive, both have excellent wrestling, both have explosive knockout power in both hands, and both have seen their success severely limited because of anything resembling submission defense.

From an athletic standpoint, Guillard is one of the most impressive guys in the Lightweight division. He has the kind of power and explosiveness that you can’t learn, no matter how hard you train. Unfortunately, he is woefully incapable of avoiding submissions, a fact that has cost him three fights so far in UFC alone, including 2 of his last 4.

Tibau is the worst conceivable opponent for Guillard in that regard. How Tibau makes 155 pounds is one of life’s great mysteries. He is absolutely massive for the division, meaning that Guillard will not find it easy to physically manhandle him and control the pace of the fight. More important, though, is that Tibau’s submission offense is top notch, which is going to be a huge problem for Guillard, who seems unable to resist the temptation of sticking his neck into a guillotine choke.

Put simply, Tibau’s submission game is too much for the one-dimensional Guillard to handle. Tibau by guillotine choke, round 1.