UFC 96: Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin Prediction

Shane Carwin vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

In a heavyweight bout that very well might have future title implications, undefeated super-rookie Shane Carwin will step into the Octagon to defend his undefeated streak against jiu-jitsu phenom Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga.

Gonzaga made quite an impact upon his UFC debut, capturing consecutive wins over Fabiano Scherner and Carmelo Marrero before shocking the world by felling Mirko Cro Cop with a powerful left high kick.

After, though, he found his momentum halted by consecutive stoppages against Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum. Offensively, Gonzaga is an extremely dangerous guy. He is imposingly large, has world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and has proven that his standup is more than capable of ending a fight. That said, against Carwin his best chance will probably be a submission, as Carwin has proven to have dynamite in his hands.

Put simply, Shane Carwin is a beast. Undefeated in 10 bouts, Carwin has not only never seen the second round of a fight, he has never seen the second half of the first round. A huge guy with a wrestling background and solid submissions, Carwin’s standup is probably the most frightening part of his fight game, which is saying something. The only huge disadvantage Carwin brings into this fight is experience.

While he has ony three less fights than Gonzaga, the level of competition is not even close. Gonzaga has been tested by multiple top Heavyweights, while Carwin has fought smaller show staples and journeymen.

This fight will be a perfect indicator of where Carwin stands in the division. Gonzaga is far better than any of his previous opponents, and with his jiu-jitsu pedigree and dangerous striking, is a handful for any opponent.

Still, I think Carwin’s dynamism and explosiveness are too much for “Napao” to handle, and Carwin is going to pull of a gigantic upset with a big TKO in, you guessed it, the first round.