WEC 41: Mike Brown vs. Urijah Faber 2 Prediction

Mike Thomas Brown (21-4) vs. Urijah “The California Kid” Faber (22-2)

At WEC’s upcoming show, Featherweight champion Mike Thomas Brown will look to defend his title against the man he defeated to win it, former WEC posterboy “The California Kid” Urijah Faber.  Faber, once considered the top 145 pound fighter in the world, was blown out of the water in his first meeting with Brown after attempting a ridiculous elbow early in the first round.  Brown easily dodged the elbow and sent Faber down with a huge counterpunch before jumping on him and pounding him out with vicious, unanswered strikes on the ground.

Faber is one of the sport’s more popular fighters, both because of his exciting fight style and his laid-back personality.  For a while, he looked unbeatable at 145, mixing his quality striking with his excellent wrestling and deadly guillotine chokes to confound his foes, including former UFC Lightweight champion Jens “Little Evil” Pulver.  In his first meeting with Brown, though, Faber paid the price for overconfidence and was completely destroyed within half a round.  I think it’s safe to say you won’t see Faber throwing any rolling elbows or other gimmick strikes in the rematch, as he will be all business in trying to recapture his featherweight crown.

Even with a businesslike approach, though, Faber might have his hands full with the dynamic Brown.  After capturing the title, many fans and pundits felt that Brown was on the lucky end of a fluke punch despite the quality wins he had already garnered.  In his first defense against Leonard Garcia, though, Brown put all the doubts about his legitimacy to rest, completely destroying Garcia in the standup before thwarting his ground game, passing his guard, and submitting him with a beautiful arm triangle from mount.  Brown showed not only that the win against Faber wasn’t a fluke, but that he has a stellar ground game to go with his bruising punching.

This is about as even a matchup as you are ever likely to see.  Both men have precise and powerful standup, quality ground games, and top-level fight experience.  I think it’s safe to say that we won’t see a repeat of Brown’s previous two and a half minute knockout, but that doesn’t mean Faber is in the clear by any means.  Faber has the edge in wrestling, but Brown is good enough on the ground that I don’t see him getting submitted or even landing in a really disadvantageous position.  Standing, the edge goes to Brown, who has vastly superior punching power and probably superior technique to go with it.  

Ultimately, I think Brown will prove that, while the way the first fight ended was a fluke, the result itself was not.  I see him putting Faber down midway through the third after a hard-fought, back and forth battle.