Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes Prediction

UFC Featherweight Title bout:  Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

Odds: (-325 Aldo / +250 Mendes )

Betting Pick: Aldo

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In the main event of the evening, Featherweight champion Jose “Scarface” Aldo will look to continue his utter dominance of the division against top contender Chad “Money” Mendes. Aldo has basically looked untouchable in establishing his 145 pound dominance, riding a 13 fight win streak against all the best competition in his division. Mendes, for his part, has used dominant wrestling and positional control to put together an unblemished professional record and climb his way to a title shot. Mendes has never had to deal with anyone who can strike like Aldo can, but his ability to ground fights and hold top position could give Aldo some trouble. If Mendes can take Aldo off his game with takedowns and force him to work off his back, he may well be in a great position to pull off the upset.

Chad “Money” Mendes is one of the most effective and dangerous young fighters in the Featherweight division. Riding 11 straight wins and an undefeated record, Mendes will get a chance to use his dominant wrestling to try and derail Jose Aldo’s six and a half year reign of dominance. There is no question that Aldo is the best fighter Mendes has ever had to face, and Aldo’s unique weapons are going to make it even more difficult for Mendes in his first title shot. Mendes is going to have to be very careful in the standup not to give anything away and not to let Aldo chop away his base with his patented low kicks. There is no question that Chad Mendes comes into the Octagon to wrestle, and that is exactly what he will try to do to Aldo here. His only chance is by taking Aldo’s strengths away and forcing him to work off his back. If Mendes can secure takedowns reliably, he definitely has the wrestling and positional control to grind out a decision from top position. He is just going to have to be very careful not to make any huge mistakes in the striking and not to telegraph his takedowns. Asking a young fighter in his first title shot to fight a mistake-free fight is asking a lot, but that’s what Mendes will need to do if he wants to leave with a championship belt and his undefeated record intact.

For all the hype that Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre get for their relative dominance of their division, it is 145 pound king Jose “Scarface” Aldo who may well be the most dominant champion in the sport. Aldo has not only fought, and beat, the best fighters in his weight class for the last six years or more, he has crushed former champions, former Lightweight contenders, and every other threat in his division with ease. Following back to back destructions of former champions Urijah Faber and Mike Thomas Brown, Aldo crushed a surging Manvel Gamburyan, handled another top contender in Mark Hominick, and then embarrassed former Lightweight contender Kenny “KenFlo” Florian in his Featherweight debut. Aldo’s striking is superlative, and his defense seems impenetrable at times. Aldo’s ability to move in and out, landing strikes both ways, and to destroy his opponents’ movement with low kicks make him extremely difficult to deal with on the feet. He isn’t a dominant grappler, but he has shown great takedown defense and a good defensive ground game, which is all he needs to work his devastating standup game. He will enjoy a huge striking advantage over Mendes, he just needs to make sure not to commit too much or leave himself open for easy takedowns.

Despite Aldo’s untouchable pedigree as a champion, this is a pretty tough fight to call. There is no question that Aldo has the tools to pick Mendes apart on the feet, but Mendes’ wrestling is far better than anything Aldo has had to deal with recently, and he is not going to win this fight off his back. If Mendes can secure takedowns consistently, something he has the ability to do, he will win this fight. Still, this is his first big title fight, and Aldo has consistently handled the pressure of these big fights without even breaking a sweat. Mendes is going to be a player in this division, but I think at this point Aldo is just a little too quick, a little too experienced, and a little too crafty. Aldo by decision.

Prediction: Jose Aldo by Unanimous Decision.

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