UFC 120: Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit Prediction

UFC Welterweight bout: Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit

Odds:  (-155 Hardy / +125 Condit )

Betting Pick:  Dan Hardy

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In the semi-main event, British standout Dan Hardy will step into the ring with well-rounded veteran Carlos Condit in a top-level Welterweight match. Condit is one of the more well-rounded guys in the division, but Hardy is easily the best striker at 170 pounds in the UFC, so this is a very interesting matchup, especially considering that Hardy just got done fighting Condit’s teammate Georges St. Pierre.

Condit, an 8 year veteran of the sport who made his UFC debut after the merger of WEC’s higher weight divisions, is a very dangerous, well-rounded, and underrated fighter. He has good boxing with some power, very solid wrestling, and a dangerous submission attack, which makes him the complete package. While he is very good at every range of the fight game, though, he is not particularly dominant in any one area, which could be a problem against a specialist like Dan Hardy.

Hardy, one of Britain’s top stars, is easily one of the best 170 pound strikers in the world. In his last fight against Georges St. Pierre, he also showed very impressive submission defense and an uncanny ability to stay out of trouble on the ground in bottom position. Although St. Pierre completely neutralized his offense, Hardy looked extremely resilient and hard to control. On the feet, there is no one in the division who can best Hardy, which is a huge advantage obviously against anyone.

I think Condit, as good as he is, is overmatched in this one. While he is good at everything, the only way to stop Hardy is to completely control him physically using wrestling, clinch work, and top control. Condit isn’t physical enough to overpower Hardy, his wrestling is not good enough to keep Hardy down reliably, and his standup is not nearly good enough to hang with Hardy. Condit is a tough guy, and notoriously hard to finish, so he will probably hang around until the end, but he is clearly outgunned here. Hardy by decision.

Prediction:  Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy via split decision.

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