Lightweight bout: Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau
Odds: (-150 Miller / +120 Tibau )
Betting Pick: Gleison Tibau
The second bout of the evening pits AMA’s Jim Miller against American Top Team’s Gleison Tibau in what promises to be one of the most competitive ground fights in recent memory. Both Miller and Tibau are very slick on the ground, so this one could really go either way depending on who makes the first mistake.
Jim Miller is a top-notch grappler and an extremely tough fighter. He has fought some very tough competition, has never been finished in a fight, and his only two career losses are at the hands of Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, the two guys who will be fighting it out for the Lightweight title soon. He can submit people from a variety of positions and has a very solid top control game. The only issue he is going to have in this fight is a distinct size and strength disadvantage.
Tibau, also a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expert, is freakishly large for the Lightweight division. While he is not very tall, he is extremely bulky and strong, which is a distinct advantage against the lanky and thin Miller. On the ground, Tibau is at least a match for Miller, with a very dynamic submission game and arguably superior wrestling to go along with it. His standup is not very good at all, but Miller is not the type of fighter who can really make him pay for his lack of striking ability.
This is a very close match. Neither guy is very accomplished in the striking, and both of them have such high-level grappling that there is a real chance that they will cancel each other out. I think the edge goes to Tibau based on sheer physicality. This is going to be a close fight, but I think Tibau should take the narrow decision based largely on superior positioning in the ground game.
Prediction: Gleison Tibau via unanimous decision.
- Bet on the UnderDog Tibau @ +120 for the Win.
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