UFC 118: Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda Prediction

Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

Odds:  ( Maia / Miranda )

Betting Pick:  Demian Maia

The second bout is a Middleweight showdown pitting jiu-jitsu phenom Demian Maia against well-rounded AMC grappler Mario Miranda.  His fights with Anderson Silva and Nate Marquardt showed just how far Maia still has to go in the standup department, but no one can doubt his submission prowess.  He may have his hands full with Miranda, though, who has a solid submission game of his own on top of some solid wrestling and striking.

Mario Miranda, a native of Brazil, is a very well-rounded fighter who has only lost once, to superhuman prospect Gerald Harris in his UFC debut.  He earned his way into the UFC with solid grappling, a dynamic striking attack, a solid chin, and good submission defense.  In his last fight he got back to his winning ways, dropping former champ David Louiseau with punches in the second round.  There is no question what Miranda’s key to victory in this fight is.  While he is fairly skilled on the ground, he needs to keep this fight standing and exploit Maia’s questionable chin and lack of striking technique if he wants any chance of making it two in a row.  If he allows Maia to tie him up and drag this fight to the ground, it is only a matter of time before he is submitted.

Maia is a rarity in the sport at this point in that he is a one-dimensional fighter who is still capable of competing against the upper echelon of the division’s talent.  His standup is rudimentary at best and he is not a dominant takedown artist, but there is no question that he is the most dangerous guy in the UFC to be on the ground with.  From every position, Maia is capable of submitting opponents in a huge variety of ways.  You never have to wonder what his game plan will be, because his only offensive weapon is his submission game, but still most of his opponents find it impossible to prevent him from doing his thing.

Miranda is a good fighter who is only going to get better, but Maia is too much for him.  Miranda can end fights on the feet, but he is not a dominant, world-class striker, and it is going to be extremely difficult for him to keep Maia from taking him down or tying him up and pulling guard.  The second this fight hits the mat it is elementary, because no one in the division can survive long on the ground with Maia, who takes this one by submission.

Prediction:  Demian Maia via second round arm triangle choke.

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