Middleweight bout: Chris Leben vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
Odds: (+165 Leben / -205 Akiyama )
With Wanderlei Silva being forced to pull out of his upcoming bout due to a host of injuries sustained in training, notoriously tough slugger Chris “The Crippler” Leben steps up to the plate barely two weeks out from his upset victory over Aaron Simpson. Leben is one of the toughest guys in the division to finish, but Akiyama has a formidable ground game that might be enough to put a stop to his recent momentum, so this is a great last-minute fight.
Leben, who pulled off a substantial upset barely two weeks ago by shutting down Aaron Simpson’s wrestling game and bruising him up badly in the standup, is easily one of the toughest fighters on the planet. While he is not very technical, he has great punching power, an iron chin, and an absurd amount of heart. He never stops moving forward and trying to take his opponents’ heads off, no matter how vicious a beating he is taking. While his offense is largely limited to huge power punching, he does have great submission defense and an uncanny ability to get out from underneath his opponents, which is going to be a huge boon against a guy with a ground game as good as Akiyama’s.
Akiyama, who became a superstar with a string of dominating performances in Japan, is a very dynamic fighter with good standup, great wrestling and judo, and very effective submissions. In his first UFC appearance, he didn’t look spectacular against Alan Belcher, but Belcher is a guy who is capable of testing Akiyama’s strengths, whereas Leben is not a threat to finish him on the ground. It’s possible that Akiyama can outbox Leben, based on his advantages in speed and technique, but he lacks the power to put Leben away with strikes, which means if he opts to stand he is giving Leben chances to keep pressing the action and catch him with a huge power shot.
As tough as Leben is, I think this is Akiyama’s fight to win. Akiyama’s boxing is actually quite crisp, but most importantly, he is the one who can use his wrestling and judo to dictate the pace of the fight. He will get his shots in on Leben due to his hand speed, and any time he finds himself in trouble he is more than equipped to clinch up and send Leben for a ride. I don’t think Akiyama has what it takes to finish Leben, standing or on the ground, but his technical boxing, takedowns, and top control should be more than enough to earn him the decision victory.
Prediction: Yoshihiro Akiyama via unanimous decision.
- A bet on Leben @+165 here isn’t a bad idea, I dont see Akiyama KO’ing Leben nor submitting him. Leben is feeling good and Akiyama didn’t really want to take the fight after Silva dropped out. We all know Leben is tough and can drop bombs.
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