UFC 116: Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar 2 Prediction

Light Heavyweight bout:  Krzysztof Soszynski vs.  Stephan Bonnar

Odds:  ( -240 Soszynski / +190 Bonnar )

In the main card’s second bout, Ultimate Fighter Season 1 runner up Stephan Bonnar looks for redemption against “The Polish Hammer” Krzystof Soszynski, who won their last fight after a very controversial doctor’s stoppage due to a cut that replays showed had been caused by an inadvertent headbutt.  Before the cut, it was an extremely competitive fight, so that makes this rematch even more exciting.

Bonnar, who took Forrest Griffin to the absolute limit in the Ultimate Fighter season 1 finale, has had a very up and down career since.  While Dana White has assured that Bonnar will always have a spot in the UFC, a fourth straight loss could spell the end of his relevance.  Still, he has a formidable arsenal at his disposable, including very underrated jiu-jitsu, a great chin, and rangy, effective boxing.  His biggest concern against Soszynski is going to have to be his takedown defense, though.

Soszynski, an IFL veteran who also made it to the UFC through the reality show, has put together a pretty decent record so far.  A quality wrestler with good punching power and great submissions from top position, Soszynski is a very workmanlike fighter, but he is not very dominant at everything.  The first fight with Bonnar was extremely close before the cut, so he is going to have to come in with a better game plan if he wants to do enough to win here.

Ultimately, I think this fight favors Soszynski based solely on his wrestling.  Bonnar is good enough off his back that he is not going to get dominated, and while Soszynski has more punching power, Bonnar has a reach advantage and better striking technique.  Soszynski’s superior wrestling will make the difference, because in really close fights those extra points from the takedowns make a huge difference in the scoring.  Soszynski by decision.

Prediction:  Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski via Unanimous Decision.

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