UFC 108: Rasahd Evans vs. Thiago Silva Prediction

205 lbs:  Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva

Odds: (-225 Evans / +185 Silva)

The main event of the evening is a Light Heavyweight matchup pitting recent title challenger Thiago Silva against former Light Heavyweight champion and Ultimate Fighter winner “Sugar” Rashad Evans.  Silva, coming off a dominant win over Rashad’s teammate and friend Keith Jardine, stepped up to replace Quinton “Rampage” Jackson when Rampage decided to pursue an acting career instead of fighting Evans.  Rashad is coming off a brutal title loss, so between that and Silva’s win over Jardine, he will definitely be looking for vindication.

Silva, a Muay Thai stylist with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, is a very well-rounded and dangerous fighter.  Despite his pedigree on the ground, though, Silva does his best work with his hands, and has knocked out a vast majority of his opponents inside the first round.  His only career loss came at the hands of current Light Heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida, who outboxed him handily and exposed his questionable footwork.  Of course, Machida did exactly the same thing to Evans and almost everyone else he has ever fought, so that is hardly a black mark on Silva’s record or a disadvantage heading into this fight.

Evans, who captured the Heavyweight crown on Season 2 of The Ultimate Fighter, steadily picked up steam in the UFC.  His first few performances were somewhat uninspiring, and he used his wrestling to earn a string of extremely narrow decisions and a draw with Tito Ortiz that was saved from being a loss only by a point deduction from Ortiz.  As his career went on, though, his standup continued to develop, and he scored great knockouts of Sean Salmon, Hall of Famer Chuck Liddell, and then-champion Forrest Griffin to earn the Light Heavyweight title.  At this point, Rashad is a complete fighter, still possessing the good wrestling skills that got him to UFC to begin with, but also having accurate, heavy-handed boxing and very good head movement and defense.

Stylistically, I would give the edge in this one to Evans.  Silva’s standup is technically better, but Rashad has just as much power, if not a little more, and is notoriously slippery on the feet.  His head movement and the threat of takedowns will keep Silva’s standup a little more cautious than it would normally be, and that will make all the difference.  I expect to see a little of the old Rashad in this fight, only standing with Silva long enough to set up the takedown, which will allow him to control the fight from top position.  Silva has good jiu jitsu, but has never submitted anyone off his back, and it is highly unlikely that Rashad will be his first.  Expect Rashad to confound Silva and earn the unanimous decision nod.

Fight Prediction:  “Sugar” Rashad Evans via unanimous decision.

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5 Responses to UFC 108: Rasahd Evans vs. Thiago Silva Prediction

  1. MrISIB December 24, 2009 at 5:33 am #

    I’m really split on this fight, I was tring to find the Silva vs Jardine fight but I couldn’t find it anywhere to rewatch I think after I rewatch that fight it will ultimately decide who I choose for this fight.

    Heres what I think so far:
    Stylistically counter puncher Rashad would beat the aggressive striker that just charges forward. But from what I remember from the Jardine fight Silva stayed composed and just waited to explode, that might have to be in part of his new training camp. So Rashad’s counter punching might not play a role in this fight.

    On the ground, Rashad won’t get submitted but we havn’t seen this guy taken anyone down to the ground in a long time.

    Also Rashad starts very slow in his fights. So the first round is going to be Silva’s if both these guys are still standing, 2nd round I would also give to Silva cause by then he will be in his rhythm. 3rd round is basically where Rashad has to win this.

    If Rashads game plan is to take the fight to the ground I believe its a easy win for him but if it stands I see Silva winning. The underdog bet is screaming at me.

  2. Chris December 25, 2009 at 7:17 am #

    Rashad @ -225 means he has to win more than 70% of the time to make a profit. So to be safe you should expect him to win around 75% of the time.

    I think you would have to be crazy to think Rashad will win 3 out of 4 times. That’s such a risky bet.

    This site is becoming less and less neutral. It seems more about encouraging people to bet with particular companies than actually giving good betting advice.

    I am a mathematician and gamble very seriously and I take this site less and less seriously as time goes by.

  3. Pat December 25, 2009 at 4:30 pm #

    Chris, I call the fight as I see it going down. I’m no mathematician, nor do I make the odds and we all know a fight can go either way in the sport of MMA.

    I appreciate you checking out our site, but in no way am I telling anyone what to do, only suggestions. No need for negative feedback, but you are entitled to your opinion.

    I like to place bets on fights and merely suggest where to bet. It adds to the excitement of fight night.

  4. MrISIB December 29, 2009 at 10:11 am #

    Hey Pat,

    Don’t let a little hate bother you. Its the internet so there’s no way you can please everyone I find your analysis to be pretty spot on and I like comparing how you and me match up after I figure out who I pick. Keep up the good work and have a great new year.

    Sincerely,
    Thomas

  5. tod mcdonald December 29, 2009 at 10:54 pm #

    First off go to Vegas to bet if possible. the Orleans generally offers the best odds. I got +120 on Sylvia against Jardin and +125 on Belfort against Franklin.

    I like Thiago in this fight at a + 185 or there abouts it could be a nice payday. I usually wont bet big favorites but Dos Santos is raw and will crush in this next fight.

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